Theia’s Roulette – Updated November 14, 2025

1. What Is Theia’s Roulette and Why Does It Matter?

Theia’s Roulette is a limited-time spender event where you spin a wheel to get rewards, with the main goal being fragments for a featured Holy or Shadow immortal.

It’s especially important in:

• Season 1 if you want to unlock and build a Holy/Shadow core early
• Season 2 if you’re finishing stars, artifacts, or starting talents (you’ll need even more fragments for talents, but that’s a topic for another guide)

The November 2025 update didn’t change how the event runs, but it did change what you can land on — in a way that makes the event more valuable and more fragment-focused.

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2. How the Event Works (Core Mechanics)

Here’s the structure of Theia’s Roulette:

• Up to 9,999 spins per day
• 1 free spin per day
• All other spins cost raffle tickets (bought in packs)
• Every 25 spins, the wheel “resets” (a cycle)
• If you go an entire 25-spin cycle without hitting the jackpot, you get +10 fragments automatically (pity)

On top of that, there’s a bonus reward bar:

• At certain total spin counts during the event (50 / 100 / 200 / 350 / 500 / 700 / 900), you get extra fragments.
• Hitting all milestones in one event gives +120 fragments.

This bonus bar is super important when we talk about how many events you need to max an immortal.

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3. Updated Drop Table – What Can You Actually Get Now?

The big change in November 2025 is the reward slots on the wheel.

Previously, some slots were random stuff like speedups or a harvest buff. Those are now gone. In their place, we now have more fragment slots.

Right now, the fragment-related slots on the wheel are:

1) The Jackpot Slot – 10× Fragments

• Drop chance: 3% per spin
• Reward: 10 fragments of the featured immortal
• Pity: If a 25-spin cycle has 0 jackpot hits, you get an automatic +10 fragments at the end of that cycle

This is still the main “big hit” on the wheel.

2) Five Single-Fragment Slots – 1× Fragment Each

• Number of slots: 5 different positions on the wheel
• Drop chance: 1% each per spin
• Reward from each: 1 fragment
• Important: These do NOT interact with pity — they are just extra fragment gains on top

So in every spin, your fragment-related chances are:

• 3% chance → +10 fragments
• 1% chance → +1 fragment
• 1% chance → +1 fragment
• 1% chance → +1 fragment
• 1% chance → +1 fragment
• 1% chance → +1 fragment

That’s the full fragment side of the wheel.

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4. Math – Expected Fragments per Spin (Step by Step)

Now let’s actually calculate how many fragments you get on average per spin with this setup.

We’re going to break it into two parts:

1. Jackpot + pity (10-frag hits)
2. Five single-fragment slots (1-frag hits)

Then we add them together.

4.1. Part 1 – Jackpot + Pity (10-Fragment Hits)

First, ignore the 1-fragment slots and just focus on the jackpot.

• Chance of jackpot per spin: 3% = 0.03
• Reward when it hits: 10 fragments

If there was no pity system, then over 25 spins:

• Expected jackpots = 25 × 0.03 = 0.75 hits
• Expected fragments from jackpots = 0.75 × 10 = 7.5 fragments per 25 spins

But we do have pity.

Pity says: if you get zero jackpots in a 25-spin block, you get +10 fragments anyway.

So we need the probability of zero jackpot hits in 25 spins.

Each spin has a 97% chance of not hitting the jackpot:

• Chance of no jackpot in 1 spin = 1 − 0.03 = 0.97
• Chance of no jackpots in 25 spins = 0.97²⁵

Let’s approximate that:

• 0.97²⁵ ≈ 0.467 (about 46.7%)

So:

• In about 46.7% of 25-spin cycles, you get no jackpot, and pity gives you 10 fragments.

Expected fragments from pity per 25 spins:

• 0.467 × 10 = 4.67 fragments

Now combine normal jackpots + pity:

• From jackpots themselves: 7.5 fragments per 25 spins
• From pity: 4.67 fragments per 25 spins

Total from “10-fragment type” gains: 7.5 + 4.67 ≈ 12.17 fragments per 25 spins

Fragments per spin from jackpot + pity: 12.17 ÷ 25 ≈ 0.4868 fragments per spin

We’ll keep that as = 0.48679 fragments per spin from jackpot + pity

4.2. Part 2 – Five 1-Fragment Slots

Now we add in the new 1-fragment slots.

Each 1-fragment slot:

• Has 1% chance per spin
• Gives 1 fragment

We have five of them, so together:

• Total chance per spin to land on one of these = 5 × 1% = 5% = 0.05
• Each hit gives 1 fragment

Expected fragments from these per spin: 0.05 × 1 = 0.05 fragments per spin

They don’t have pity, so this is just a straight average.

4.3. Total Expected Fragments per Spin

Now we combine both sources:

• From jackpot + pity: 0.48679 frags/spin
• From five 1-frag slots: 0.05 frags/spin

Total: 0.48679 + 0.05 = 0.53679 fragments per spin

That’s the key number we’ll use for everything else.

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5. From Spins to Fragments – How Many Spins to Reach 1,020?

To fully max an immortal’s stars + artifact, you need: 1,020 fragments

(And in Season 2+ you’ll need more for talents, but that’s its own topic.)

If we only used the wheel’s average fragments per spin and ignored the bonus bar for a moment:

Spins needed = 1,020 ÷ 0.53679 ≈ 1,900 spins (rounded)

But in real play, you’re not spinning randomly; you’re almost always going to:

• Push to 900 spins per event to get the full bonus bar
• Stack the +120 fragments from milestones

So let’s look at a full 900-spin event.

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5.1. One Full Event at 900 Spins

If you do not care about cost efficiency as much as you care about sheer speed then you are likely looking at wanting to get the 900 spins in for max rewards each event. Using our expected fragments-per-spin:

• From spins alone:
  900 × 0.53679 ≈ 483.11 fragments

We’ll round it to ≈ 483 fragments from spinning the wheel.

Bonus bar:

• Total bonus fragments for 50/100/200/350/500/700/900 spins = +120 fragments

So per 900-spin event, total fragments: 483 (from spins) + 120 (bonus bar) = avg. 603 fragments per event

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5.2. How Many Events Do You Need?

You want at least 1,020 fragments.

Events needed = 1,020 ÷ 603 ≈ 1.69 events

So in practice:

• After two full events at 900 spins each, you’ll typically be comfortably over 1,020 fragments.

Expected total after 2 events:

• 603 × 2 ≈ 1,206 fragments

So compared to the 1,020 you actually need, you have a decent safety margin for bad luck. Now this is assuming you go for sheer speed over efficiency. Below we will have a look at buying more carefully to get better efficiency.

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Bonus Bar Efficiency (and Why 50 & 100 Spins Are So Good)

The bonus bar gives you extra fragments at specific total spin counts during the event:

• 50 / 100 / 200 / 350 / 500 / 700 / 900 spins
• Each gives 10 fragments, except the last one at 900, which gives 60 fragments
• Total if you go all the way: 120 bonus fragments

The key thing isn’t just how many fragments you get, but how efficient each step is – basically, “how many extra fragments do I get per spin in this range?”

Here’s a clean breakdown:

Milestone (Total Spins)	Bonus at This Milestone	Spins in This Segment	Fragments Gained in This Segment	Fragments per Spin in This Segment	Cumulative Bonus (Total Frags)	Cumulative Bonus per Spin
50	10	0 → 50	10	0.20	10	0.20
100	10	50 → 100	10	0.20	20	0.20
200	10	100 → 200	10	0.10	30	0.15
350	10	200 → 350	10	≈0.07	40	≈0.11
500	10	350 → 500	10	≈0.07	50	0.10
700	10	500 → 700	10	0.05	60	≈0.09
900	60	700 → 900	60	0.30	120	≈0.13

A few things really stand out here:

• The first two milestones (50 and 100 spins) are insanely efficient:
  you’re getting 0.2 bonus fragments per spin just from the bar.
  That’s on top of whatever you’re already getting from the wheel itself.
• The middle milestones (200 → 700) are okay, but clearly weaker:
  you’re dropping down to 0.10 → ~0.05 frags per spin in those stretches.
• The final stretch from 700 to 900 spins is actually the best of them all:
  the last chest gives 60 frags over 200 spins, so it’s 0.3 bonus frags per spin.
  That’s huge – better than even the early 50/100 ranges.

So for planning:

• If you’re a light spender or just casually picking up tickets over time, it actually makes a lot of sense to bank tickets and then, on events where the featured immortal is one you like, push to at least 50 or 100 spins. Those first two milestones have excellent efficiency, and you don’t need crazy spending to reach them.
• If you’re a heavy spender going for max, you honestly want to think in two “gears”:
  either do a small push to 50–100 spins in a “meh” event just for good value,
  or go all the way to 900 when the immortal is important, because that last 700–900 stretch is incredibly efficient thanks to the +60 fragment chest.

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Cost Analysis – Fast Build vs Slow Build Strategies

Theia’s Roulette gives you two realistic ways to work toward a Holy or Shadow immortal: you can either sprint through the event in as few runs as possible, or you can chip away at it over many events using only the cheaper bundles and the early bonus bar milestones. Both styles work; the difference is how quickly you want the immortal and how much you’re comfortable spending in a short window.

Below are the two main approaches players use and what they cost.

Fast Strategy – Maxing an Immortal in Two Events (900 Spins Each)

For whales, heavy spenders, and anyone aiming to build multiple Holy/Shadow immortals quickly.

If your goal is to finish an immortal in the shortest time possible, you aim for two full events, each reaching 900 spins. With the current expected value per spin (0.53679 fragments) and the bonus bar (120 fragments per event), a 900-spin run gives roughly:

• ≈483 fragments from the wheel itself
• +120 from the bonus bar
• ≈603 fragments total per event

Two events give you around 1,206 fragments, which puts you comfortably over the 1,020 fragments needed for stars + artifact.

The actual cost of a 900-spin event depends on using the cheap bundles (the $5, $10, and $20 packs) first and only dipping into the $49.99 packs when you run out of efficient options. Because bundle stock resets daily over the 3-day event, you can buy a lot of the efficient bundles before touching the expensive ones.

The total cost for one 900-spin event comes out to about $919.42, so two events run roughly:

≈ $1,838.84 total to max a Holy/Shadow immortal fast

If you care about raw cost-per-fragment, this path is surprisingly efficient for how front-loaded it is. With around 1,206 fragments expected across the two events, it works out to roughly:

≈ $1.52 per fragment

For players who want a complete Holy or Shadow march early—or want to push multiple immortals in a single season—this is the strategy that makes the most sense.

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Slow Strategy – 200 Spins Per Event (Cheaper Events, More Events)

For selective spenders, mid-tier spenders, or players who want good value without committing to 900-spin runs.

If you’re not trying to max an immortal immediately, the 200-spin target is actually very solid because it hits the first three bonus bar milestones (50, 100, and 200 spins). These early bonuses are extremely efficient—you’re getting 10 fragments for each milestone, and those first two ranges in particular give better bonus value per spin than almost any other part of the event.

Let’s break down what a 200-spin push looks like.

How many fragments do you get from 200 spins?

Using the updated expected fragments per spin (0.53679):

• 200 spins × 0.53679 ≈ 107.4 fragments from the wheel

Then add the bonus bar:

• 50 spins → +10
• 100 spins → +10
• 200 spins → +10
• Total bonus = 30 fragments

So each 200-spin event gives you roughly:

≈137 fragments per event

This is obviously much slower, but it’s also the most value-friendly “bite-sized” purchase level in the entire event.

How much does a 200-spin event cost?

Here’s where it gets nice: you can cover all 200 spins using only the cheap bundles (the $5, $10, and $20 packs).

Over a 3-day event, you’re allowed:

• 12 × $4.99 packs = 60 spins
• 18 × $9.99 packs = 180 spins
• 24 × $19.99 packs = 480 spins

Even with just the $5 and $10 packs you can get the 200 spins, but most players mix in a little of the $20 packs so the spend is smoother.

A clean “200-spin” purchase looks like this:

• 60 spins from $5 packs = $59.88
• 140 spins from $10 packages = $139.86

Total:

≈ $199.74 per 200-spin event

(A lot of players just round this to “around $200 per event” when budgeting.)

Now divide cost by fragments:

• $199.74 ÷ 137 ≈ $1.46 per fragment

That’s actually more efficient per fragment than the fast method, but slower in real time.

How many events to reach 1,020 fragments at this pace?

• 1,020 ÷ 137 ≈ 7.44 events

So realistically:

You’ll max an immortal in about 8 events using the slow 200-spin method

This is why many mid-spenders like this strategy: it spreads the cost over two months or more, gives very efficient returns per dollar, and doesn’t require buying the $50 packs at all.

Published: 14-11-2025